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Such gloomy prospects for Georgy Lvov and Alexander Guchkov persuaded them to actively oppose Premier B. Stürmer (under the pretext of his German origin) from the fall of 1916 and speed up and concretize the plans of the palace coup. In the autumn of 1916, also the Duma opposition, the Progressive Bloc, which was closely connected with the Zemgor and the military-industrial complex, also became active, as well as the so-called "Grand-Princes's fronda", which included many liberal-minded grand dukes from the immediate circle of the Royal Family. It was from the autumn of 1916 that Rasputin's cruel harassment and the dissemination of insolent slander about the "pro-German" mood of Empress Alexandra Feodorovna began. These lies and slander were repeatedly amplified in extremist leaflets of the Socialist-Revolutionaries and Bolsheviks on the fronts and in the spare parts in the rear, primarily in Petrograd. By the way, B. Sturmer attempted to withdraw unreliable reserve regiments from Petrograd, but these plans were blocked by the leadership of the Northwestern Front (by generals Ruzsky and Gurko).
November 10, 1916 the opposition achieved the resignation of Stürmer, on December 16, Grigory Rasputin was killed.
I quote further on the Wikipedia article "The February Revolution" (written with my participation), with some additions:
<<Alexander Guchkov told in the emigration [A.I. Guchkov tells … – "Questions of History", 1991, 37 \ 8, pp. 205-206] that in the autumn of 1916 "a plan for a palace coup was born, as a result of which the sovereign would be forced to sign a renunciation with the transfer of the throne to the legitimate heir. Within these limits, the plan was quickly evolved. To this group of two initiators (A.Guchkov and N.Nekrasov) joined in agreement with Nekrasov M.Tereschenko (both were prominent Masons) and thus the group that took over the fulfillment of this plan was formed … Prince Vyazemsky joined our circle» [A.I. Guchkov tells … – "Questions of History", 1991, 37 \ 8, pp. 205-206]. In the fall of 1916, through his connections in the Military Industrial Committees, Guchkov has involved to the conspiracy of two or three front commanders (led by NV Ruzsky) and several officials of the Railway Department in Petrograd, and in the last days before the February revolution, by some researchers, he has involved and the chief of staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, General M.V. Alekseeva [Kobylin VS The Anatomy of Treason. The origins of the anti-monarchist conspiracy. – St. Petersburg, 2005.]. In January 1917 Georgy Lvov went to the Caucasus to the Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaevich (the commander of the Caucasian Front) with a proposal to support the plot against Nicholas II and change him on the throne (or to become the head of the army). The Grand Duke did not support this conspiracy, but did not inform about this conspiracy to commander-in-chief… February 9, 1917 in the office of the chairman of the IV State Duma, M.V. Rodzianko held a meeting of leaders of the opposition Duma factions. Also attended were the invited to him General N. Ruzsky and Colonel A. Krymov. The coup, according to the hints made here, was to occur no later than April 1917 (an offensive planned for April with the Allies on the Entente would inevitably cause an upsurge of patriotism and make the coup impossible). The plan of the conspirators was simple (and was implemented on March 1): during the next trip of the sovereign to GHQ to Mogilev, try to detain the tsar's train (this task was assigned to the commander of the Northern Front, N. Ruzsky) and, arresting the tsar, to force him to abdicate. [Startsev V.I. Russian political freemasonry of the early XX century. SPb, 1996. – P. 150.] According to the data of S.P. Melgunov, in February 1917, Rodzianko also met with General Alexeyev [On the way to the palace coup. (Plots before the revolution of 1917). – Paris, 1931]. »
Could Nicholas II do not abdicate on March 2, 1917?
Sometimes from opponents you can also hear such an invective against Nicholas II: why did he concede to the conspirators on March 2 in Pskov? He must be resisted to the end. Like, "cut-shoot me, martyre me, but I'll not abdicate from the power wich was got to me from God" … Well, suppose …
It must be remembered here that General N. Ruzsky, even at the first conversation, directly told the Emperor that if he will not abdicate, in this case he (Ruzsky) will not can not vouch for the safety of Empress Alexandra Feodorovna. It was blackmail, but after the murder of Rasputin, the hatred of the whole opposition turned out to be aimed at her. Although even Ambassador Buchanan wrote that the Empress in Petrograd is the most determined patriot and intends to stand for the war to the victorious end (this is by the way about the scale of slander on the Empress). There is no doubt that if the Emperor refused to abdicate, Alexandra Fyodorovna would have been immediately arrested by the conspirators, or maybe killed.
Version: Nicholas II refuse to abdicate.
Suppose that Nicholas II refused to renounce. Three or four hours later he would informed that Alexandra Fedorovna had been arrested, and the whole of Petrograd are demanding his abdication (a lie, but would have said).
With whom are the children? Four daughters, sick with measles, and son?
Suppose he still refuses to renounce. In this case it would have been necessary for the conspirators to arrest him, and most likely to kill him. At this case, under the law of succession to the throne, there would be new tsar – ill Alexei would have been ,with Michael's regency. As we know, Michael abdicated after a living brother, who had abdicated in his favor – so, most probably, in this case, Michael would have renounced in favor of the same Provisional Committee (then Provisional government).
All this would be happened in three or four days. Well, maybe in a week.
The result – the same, only with arrested for a few days earlier Nicholas and Alexandra (it is possible that with murders), with a sick Alexei who would have died without the mother's daily attention in a month or two.
The people would be rise for saving the Emperor?
The people could have supported Nicholas II if the Russian Orthodox Church had called for this. But the Holy Synod in Petrograd on February 26 refused to call on the Orthodox laymen (that is, practically the whole people) not to participate in riots and demonstrations, and a few days after the abdication, the Synod even happily welcomed the new government and blessed it.
Following the logic of opponents (critics of the behavior of the emperor in February-March 1917), one can say that this is also the fault of Nicholas II (that ROC or Holy Synod did not called for his protection). However, the Catholic parish in Petrograd issued an appeal to its parishioners – not to participate in demonstrations – and no Catholic took part in the events of February-March 1917! This was honestly written in his memoirs by the comrade (deputy) of the Ober-Procurator of the Most Holy Synod (from September 1916 to March 1917), Prince ND Zhevakhov. [42, p.385-387] What, Nicholas II did particularly liked Catholics? No, of course.
…
Thus, in any case, the result of events in Pskov of March 1-2 would be resulted the same. Perhaps, the Emperor understood this. Perhaps, he did not think about it, but thought about his wife and sick children. In any case, he had no other choice. Not to mention the fact that from the point of view of a normal person, he acted quite correctly.
Most likely, on the evening of March 1 in Pskov, Ruzsky, in the most violent hours of blackmail ("the storm was" – in the words of Ruzsky himself), after almost undisguised threats against the empress – at that moment Ruzsky openly told to Tsar that they (conspirators), if he continues to persist, there will be no other way out than to remove him – and that this will cause a split in the army, but they now have no other choice. Most likely, even then, on the evening of March 1, Ruzsky told the Emperor also that his abdicating had already been agreed with the allies, with the ambassadors of Britain and France. Almost certainly so it was: the conspiracy was agreed in general terms, and Ruzsky said this to the Emperor. There can be no doubt that after the general victory in the First World War, the Allies did not want to see Russia becoming a hegemon in Europe and the fact that a strong Sovereign was at the head of it. The fact that the US did not want to enter the war, while on the throne is Nicholas II – it's been known for a long time. The Sovereign knew this. Let me remind you that the United States entered the war after the fall of the monarchy in Russia. Probably all this malicious information Ruzsky brought down on the Emperor in the evening of March 1 in the imperial carriage of a tsar's train in Pskov.
Nicholas II agreed to abdicate the next day, March 2, when Ruzsky showed him five telegrams from the front commanders in support of the abdication, while hiding the sharp refusal of the fleet representative at the headquarters of Admiral AI Rusin. The generals FA Keller and Khan Nakhichevan also objected to the abdication. I would like to remind you once again that the Tsar spent all this time in Pskov be isolated from all sort of communications and had no opportunity to influence the situation.